Journal Publications

Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses (with Joshua D. Rauh), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4(2), 2012, 182-213.

Is Momentum Really Momentum?, Journal of Financial Economics 103(3), 2012, 429-453.

Finalist for the Whitebox Advisors Selected Research Prize for the most important financial research of 2011 (winner to be announced June 19th).

Public Pension Promises: How Big Are They and What Are They Worth? (with Joshua D. Rauh), Journal of Finance 66(4), 2011, 1211-1249.

Winner of the 2011 Smith-Breeden Prize for the best capital markets paper in the Journal of Finance.

Covered in the Financial Times, 31 October 2010. [link]

Covered in the Economist, 14 October 2010. [link]

Cited in the Wall Street Journal, 6 June 2009. [link]

Cited in the New York Times, 29 March 2010. [link]

Wall Street Journal coverage of a federal bill that would require state and local systems to use Treasury discount rates, 5 December 2010. [link]    

Operating leverage, Review of Finance 15(1), 2011, 103-134.

Winner of the 2011 Spängler IQAM Prize for the best paper in the Review of Finance

Policy Options for State Pension Systems and Their Impact on Plan Liabilities (with Joshua D. Rauh), Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 10(2), 2010, 173-194.

Covered in the New York Times "Bucks" Blog. [link]

Cited in the New York Times, 4 December 2010. [link]    

Hot and cold markets, Real Estate Economics 37(1), 2009, 1-22.

Winner of the 2009 Mills Prize for the best paper in Real Estate Economics.

The Liabilities and Risks of State-Sponsored Pension Plans (with Joshua D. Rauh), Journal of Economic Perspectives 23(4), 2009, 191-210.

Cited in the Economist , 9 July 2009. [link]

Cited in the Wall Street Journal, 26 March 2010. [link]

Summary available in Kellogg Insight.

Covered on National Public Radio series on state pension crisis. [link1], [link2]

An equilibrium model of investment under uncertainty, Review of Financial Studies 20(5), 2007, 1461-1502.

Working Papers

The Other Side of Value: The Gross Profitability Premium, 2012.

AQR Insight Award Distinguished Paper

Pseudo-Predictability in Conditional Asset Pricing Tests: Explaining Anomaly Performance with Politics, the Weather, Global Warming, Sunspots, and the Stars, March 2012.

Logical Implications of GASB’s Methodology for Valuing Pension Liabilities, November 2011.

The Revnue Demands of Public Employee Pension Promises (with Joshua D. Rauh), June 2011.

An Alternative Three Factor Model (with Long Chen and Lu Zhang), May 2010.

Preempting Preemptive Investment, November 2009.

Real Estate and the Economy: Aggregate Implications of Irreversible Investment, November 2009.

Compotition, Productivity, Organization and the Cross Section of Expected Returns, June 2009.

Other Publications

The Crisis in Local Government Pensions in the United States (with Joshua D. Rauh), 2011, forthcoming in Growing Old: Paying for Retirement and Institutional Money Management after the Financial Crisis, Robert Litan and Richard Herring, eds., Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.

Contains city and county breakdown of $0.6 trillion unfunded liabilities at the local level.

Related comment in the New York Times Room for Debate Blog. [link]

Covered in the Financial Times, 12 October 2010. [link]

Covered in the Washington Post, 12 October 2010. [link]

Front page of the Philadelphia Inquirer, 13 October 2010. [link]

Cited in the Wall Street Journal, 22 November 2010. [link]

Opinions

Pension Security Bonds: A New Plan to Address the Pension Crisis (with Joshua D. Rauh), The Economists' Voice 7(3), 2010.

Cited in the Financial Times. [link]

Can the Illinois Pension Catastrophe Be Stopped? (with Joshua D. Rauh), Chicago Tribune, 13 Aug 2010.

Other Papers  

The Intergenerational Transfer of Public Pension Promises (with Joshua D. Rauh).